Daily Oil Blog

Nope I’m not talking about the magician ,I’m talking about the copper market that’s essential to our modern day to day living.Everything from our roof to motor vehicles use copper.Without Copper ,we cannot surf broadband and so end the internet world.It’s use to refine our oil with industrial machines made with copper ironically powered by it too

The best thing about copper is it can be recycled and it’s been serving us for the past 10,000 years!So the coins and cookware you’re using could go back to ancient rome or egypt! A copper pendant discovered in Iraq was dated 8700BC.

Known worldwide copper resources are standing at 5.8 trillion pounds and we’ve just mined about 0.7 trillion of it and nearly all that metal is still in circulation.As we continue to upgrade our technology, the ability to source the recycled copper from premium scrap will go up more than 85% value of new minted ore.In other words , our present recycling of copper can last us , given the population will dive at some point in the future.
Copper will be our best friend for a long time I suspect long after the oil is gone

How I wish fossil energy can be recycled but it’s just a rude awakening we need to come to terms with.Copper is one of the commodities that give us hope that is sustainable.Not only does it’s recycling rate higher than other engineering metal, copper and copper alloys can inhibit the growth of fungi and bacteria. Long Live Copper!

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Recently I have a chance to go thru a book The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century by Mr Howard Kunstler regarding peak oil effects.This book is not for the timid folks out there as it deals with the energy descent questions square on.I’m hoping more readers will get their hands on this book here in Singapore given the lack of knowledge of peak oil of the general public.

The thesis of kunstler started off with the Malthus theory that cheap oil has created a century long “artificial bubble of plentitude” generating a hosts of problems related to this
prolonged energy spending spree.The problems are agricultural ,climate changes and relocation of living spaces into unsustainable suburbia.

This books sets it apart from other oil crisis books as it sweeps thru and integrated economics, science ,technology and international politics with a peek into the orb of a post oil age mirred with chaos.

Kunstler too touched on alternative energy with less enthusiam shared by techno hopefuls.He is critical about this resources and lay out the reasons why one should not based too much hope on those.This is a classic (ERoEI) Energy returned over energy invested problem

This book attempt to unravel how the use of energy by human beings got us where we are now.100 years of cheap oil have constructed a global trading and financial system that cannot be sustained by the eventual decline of fossil power.

I do not find much fault with this book but rather the author did not provide the readers more solutions but perhaps there is not really much he can provide us.Get your book at Amazon or head down to your local bookstore to get one.This book will be a serious read during weekend.

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Some disturbing facts for the elderly in the not so distant future rewards for eating oil all their lives.All of us know that most working adults in their twilight years will not have much savings to last them till their demise.Many of you will ask why blame it on oil..well the oil factor has give men the opportunities to outbreed themselves yet created an economy not sustainable enough to see them thru the retirement years.The impact on fossil energy has always been a major factor in our monetary system worldwide though not much information has been talk about their close relations.And so speed of our technology march thru in a merciless way in our oil backed technophile world and a false sense of progress directing growth leading us to nowhere but fear of the unknown.

Some countries that is pushing on pension reforms:

Japan
-World’s fastest aging population with 26% of it 127 million poplation over 60
-Workers can retire at 65 but most like to work longer
-Pension system is complex and slow to change, and employers do not want older workers

United States
- Popular Social Security state pension system resistant to change
-Workers in employer-sponsored pension schemes like 401(K) rarely diversify their investments
-Companies encourage low savings in 401(K) so they won’t get balmed if investments go bad.

Singapore
-Has one of the world’s fastest aging population
-Workers are asset rich but cash poor risk averse and slow to invest in their CPF fund
-From 2012.there will be laws to make employers re hire older workers

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There’s been a lot of talk this days of forming communes in preparation of energy descent.
One thing I must emphasied that it’s no easy task. There’re problems like cultures , religions & customs and if one is able to overcome this, there’re quirks and behaviours of one’s community members that need good mediators and leaders to buffer any mistrust and build up resentment leading to any fallouts.If one find difficulties doing it now , what is more in a low energy environment?

Man have insulate themself the need for proper communication with their fellow human beings and animals at all levels since the energy bonaza during the last century.We need to find those interlocking and intricate relationships back at all levels whether we like it or not.

People never failed to go around trying to live in randomly collected groups and have failed. then they continue doing to look for other groups to try to further their psychological development.

However it’s not difficult to see why most failed cause they have not been prepared for such an experience they either felt that they were ready for such an experience, or else their membership of such a group would give them what they needed.
A group without harmony is like a bunch of sticks together , true they will be less likely to break given their strength but they will not catch fire either giving light to the commune.

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This is an Aseop tale I heard when I was a child, it’s about a cousin of the country mouse who came to visit him, the country mouse offers him simple food .The City mouse told this cousin of his the delights of the food and life of a city and so urged him to join him back home.
The country mouse of course find this tempting and follow him back to the city.Danger awaits them as dogs & cats awaits and chased them when they were enjoying the cheese and bread.The country mouse realised the hazards of the city life,bade his cousin farewell and returned to the countryside.

This story draws parallels of urbanists vs ruralists in a peak oil environment.It’s not about the city being a more dangerous place as the city mouse shown his cousin as he’s used to the ways of the city.And also the country mouse simple way of life really does not really attract his cousin from the city who preferred the delights of the city. Both camps have displayed different realities to the cousin mice.So the tale cited one should stay in one’s environment which is more comfortable and contribute whether it in a countryside or city.

Some of us will find the move to either camp smooth and life continues as normal but most will go back to their respective urban or rural environment.This timeless tale shed nuggets of wisdom in our troubled world.
I do not see an influx of city dwellers to the countryside or vice versa,Both camps are interconnected and will find ways to co-operate.The cities will provide the culture and other urban comforts , the villages the food supply etc.

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The latest projection of energy supply in the Apec region in 2050 will sourced from:

Coal:29%
Oil :31%
Gas:25%
Nuclear:9%
Hydroelectricity:2%
Biomass and others:4%

It seems that given the growth rate of asia pacific , the demand of energy will definitely surged but it’ sad to say that we can’t even weaned off from oil and coal by 2050.As you see, the main energy supplies are still fossil based and will contribute very much to the emissions of the greenhouse gases.
So far no concrete steps are taken by the asian countries to move away from fossil energy for cleaner renewable technologies that can keep pace with the rapid growth of the economies.However the leaders are becoming more aware of the introduction of the renewable energy , the toughest challenge remains to be seem on how to integrate and implement them on a mass scale where most region are poor and economic issues take a forefront over environmental ones.

Consumption of high growth countries in emerging economies always seem to be going head on with green conscious living, the lack of public awareness,, tendency of growing middle class to live like their western counterparts will be a thorny issue for years to come.To invade into the personal domain of their people telling them not to have more than 1 child, on how not to spend on needless consumer items seems to run against free market and democratic principles.But there is no easy solution if we were to survive in our resource scarce world of increasing demand.

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I’ve been thinking about the whole solar industry may take off anyway regardless the wild promises.Though it cannot replace fossil energy, it will be a good investment for the next decade or so.
NASA discovered it in 1978 , the energy source is known as  Earth’s energy budget.And is now standing at 174 Petawatts  daily.
Just 1 Petawatt is enough to keep NYC going for 3,846 days.
The company is able to convert the captured Petawatts into usable energy for homes and buildings.So once properly installed in a mass scale, these things could capture more energy in a single month than what saudi could produce in next 50 years.
The great thing is the company can do this without costly and ugly installation of solar panels. This technology is called (BIPV) building integrated photovaltics, solar panels that was built in to the building external  structures.Using solar shingles and glass,the building roof design will remain unchanged.
So the best bet is to keep watch on the latest solar energy industry.The ride is just the beginning.

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Hi guys, I’ve been thinking and doing some research over the direct investment of Tar Sands And I would like to share some of the main points in regards of this big energy project in Canada.

“The Law of Receding Horizons”
This is a simple concept :as the costs of energy rises,the cost of everything else made with energy like building materials also rises.So an energy project which was expected to be profitable when energy costs were x amount higher than today , turns out to be still uneconomical when you get there.

The urgency to produce the tar sands due to impending decline of global crude has led to
skyrocketing costs.The real profits in producing tar sands seems to be in government tax breaks rather then the resources itself.

The whole Tar Sands operation will cost about $117 billions by 2015 according to oil analyst woodmac.

Cost Inflation

WoodMac analyst has warned about Tar sands profitability given the control of oil companies capital expenditure going forward to ensure that it will stay in the money.So
what’s the inflation culprits.

The usual ones are lack of manpower and cost of materials.There’s a lot of talk about productive practices in the scope of project management and contract schedules will help keep costs competitive.It’s true that one must keep a watch over the labour hours when your riggers and engineers are pulling over 6 figures pay.But this is not going to help much as the hardware and commodities are going through the roof as demands from Asia increase & also with high oil costs.

This is just doesn’t look like a good investment play given the high cost and low percentage of finding and producing oil in the tar sand regions and that’s why I advised readers to invest in supporting industries which is a less risky bet.

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